I don’t know what the mood of this recent pump is.
Don’t panic and keep holding Bitcoin?
Didn’t get in on the rush?
Missed oppertunity on altcoin?
Maybe all the above situations, for example, OKB rose sharply, for sure most people missed that. Some friends even said that it was the exchange coin that “halved” first.
Most investors in the crypto, although there are still many doubts, have realized that the bull market has come.
How can we be sure this wave indicates a big bull market? How long does the bull market last? Where is it now?
Of course I can’t predict that, otherwise I’m just another attention seeker, but we may be able to guess the next big market boldly through some indicators, the previous halving market and the bull-bear cycle.
Of course, any rational analysis may be vulnerable to the market, but we must always make decisions for investment.
Generally, we will use the past market trends and experience to predict future trends. Let us first look at the price changes of Bitcoin before and after the first two halvings.
The first Bitcoin halving took place on November 28, 2012. The price on the day of the halving was around US $ 12. There was no major fluctuation in the price on the day. After a few months of halving, Bitcoin began to rise rapidly, and in 2013 In April of this year, the highest rose to about 230 US dollars.
After that, it started to pull back, and then continued to oscillate back and forth between $ 66 and $ 150. Until one year later, in November 2013, the price of bitcoin exceeded 230 US dollars, breaking through the previous high, and ushered in the big bull market at the end of 2013, the highest rose to $ 1,147, a staggering 9,000% increase.
Before the halving begins, there is often a short process of callback and liquidation.
This is the highest point of $ 13.5 before the first halving. The time is on August 16th, and there are 104 days before the halving. After a few days, it quickly falls back, and then quickly rises, maintaining above $ 10 to halving.
The second halving of Bitcoin occurred on July 9, 2016, and the price on the day was around $ 650. About 23 days before the halving, Bitcoin rose to a maximum of 768 US dollars, and then fell after a shock correction.
After halving, the price of bitcoin did not rise or fall sharply, staying below $ 1,000. It has been in May 2017. Bitcoin rushed above $ 1,000 and continued to rise, reaching a peak of around $ 20,000 on December 17, this. Time is halved from the last time by 526 days.
There was also a high point before the second halving, and a callback occurred.
On June 16, 2016, 23 days before the second halving, there was a peak price of 768 US dollars before the halving, and it fell back to 600 US dollars after a few days of oscillation, although it remained around 650 US dollars until the halving.
From the last two halvings, it can be found that the big bull market in Bitcoin often appears after halving, and the slow rises after the halving. The peak of the bull market may appear in the next year or a year and a half. There was a small peak before the halving, and then the callback, but the intensity of the callback was not great.
We might as well look at the big bull market cycle of Bitcoin. Generally speaking, everyone thinks that Bitcoin has experienced three big bulls and bears, the big bull market in mid-2011, the big bull market in 2013, and the big bull market in 2017.
From May 2010 to early 2018, Bitcoin experienced four complete bull markets and three complete bear markets. Among them, 2013 saw two bull-bear conversions. If we count the bear market in 2018 again, it should be a four-wave bear market.
According to the view of the wave theory, if 2013 is only classified as a wave of rise, Bitcoin will have a five-wave rise. At the end of 2018, about US $ 3,200, which was about 83% lower than the peak in 2017, was the big bottom of the last bear market.
Judging from the previous bull and bear cycles, the maximum decline in each bear market is more than 80%, and then it enters a slowly rising process.
Investment is buying expectations.
Of course, it is not useful to talk about past experience. What works is logic. When the price rises, you say that if you do n’t buy it, you will break your thigh when you are empty.
This halving is undoubtedly a crucial reference point for the entire industry.