OKEx Technical Weekly: Dec 30, 2019 – OKEx Blog

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Technical analysis of this week’s crypto trading market

It was a slow and quiet start in the cryptocurrency market on Monday Asia as the holiday factor continues in play. The prices of bitcoin have been hovering in the 7300 area after briefly touched 7500 levels over the weekend. While the calm market condition is expected to carry into early January trading, we could see the leading cryptocurrency retreat to the high 7200 handles in the short-term, as CME futures produced another gap up. However, we believe that the chance of having some significant moves remain subdued as markets are warping up 2019.

Figure 1: Bitcoin CME Futures 3-Hour Chart (Source: Tradingview)
Figure 2: Sentix Strategic Bias — Bitcoin (Spread) (Source: Sentix)

We would also like to highlight the sentiment divergence between institutional and private investors. Fresh data from Sentix shows that the institution/private investor spread of the Bitcoin Strategic Bias has reached 48 percentage points. Meaning the two segments of investors have been holding a very different view on the outlook of bitcoin. Patrick Hussy, Managing Director at Sentix, believes that the divergence could result in some significant price movements at the beginning of 2020.

Meanwhile, we’ve seen a mixed bag in the altcoin space, with ETH and MKR jumped about 5% while ATOM and XTZ gave up 4% and 1%, respectively. Altcoin watchers won’t want to miss the Ethereum’s Muir Glacier hard fork on January 1st. Data from Ethernodes shows that about 65% of nodes were ready for the upgrade. Although network upgrades generally can bring positive impact to the prices, Muir Glacier was more like a minor tweak of the network, and markets seem not expecting the hard fork to bring an imminent bullish reversal on the price.

News-wise, we’ve seen it was relatively light on that front, but the controversy of Facebook’s Libra never gets tired. Swiss President Ueli Maurer said Libra stablecoin has failed in its current form. In an interview with SRF, Maurer believes the reason behind Libra’s failure is because “the basket of currencies that is deposited in this currency is not accepted by the national [central] banks.” Just last week, Libra Association published a second roadmap outlining plans for its mainnet launch, which is expected in 2020.

  • BTCUSDT’s short-term uptrend remains intact since reaching the lows of 6600 earlier this month. As we explained before, the pair has been retesting its July-December resistance levels but yet with success.
  • While the 50-day moving average seems a significant resistance in the short-term, the pair haven’t cleared that moving average since mid-November.
  • Even though the Bollinger Bands squeeze extended, the price has once again reached the upper band. A short-term minor correction to the high 7100 area should not be ruled out.
  • Momentum-wise, indicators have shown a mixed signal here. While the 9-day RSI seems remaining in an uptrend, the ultimate oscillator has produced some lower highs and somewhat broke the trendline.
  • On top of the CME gap up, the short-term bias of BTCUSDT has lean toward more on the downside. However, the chance of having a major pullback during the New Year holiday remains muted.
Figure 3: BTCUSDT Daily Chart (Source: OKEx; Tradingview)
  • ETH has been under the spotlight during the Asia session on Monday as it gained 5% against USDT.
  • Similar to BTC, ETHUSDT has been retesting its July-December trendline resistance, but technical-wise, ETH has shown slightly positive signals.
  • MACD’s fast line has crossed above the slow line over the weekend, and the crossover has been widening. A bullish crossover could indicate a short-term continuation in the current price direction.
  • DMI also produced a positive signal, with the +DI crossed above the -DI.
  • If the support near the previous high of 135.11 is confirmed, the pair could see retest the 145–150 area.
Figure 4: ETHUSDT Daily Chart (Source: OKEx; Tradingview)
  • The rally of ATOMUSDT could be running out of steam but not yet to the level that makes traders too worry about it.
  • Chart-wise, we’ve seen a small daily shooting star has formed last Friday, which considered a bearish signal.
  • A MACD bearish crossover seems in the marking after the recent price declines.
  • Both the RSI and the UO indicate the rally momentum could be running out of steam if not seen an immediate pick up from here.
  • The pair could retest its trendline support near the area of 3.8 before making the next major move.
Figure 5: ATOMUSDT Daily Chart (Source: OKEx; Tradingview)
  • Despite the sluggishness in BTC, BSV has been one of the gainers in the Asia session, jumped more than 5%, approaching the 100 level.
  • Although the RSI has initially touched the overbought area, there were still some rooms to go in the UO, suggesting the upside momentum could remain.
  • The price has moved toward the upper Bollinger Band and the 50-day moving average, although a retreat back to the 89 areas could still be possible in the short-term.
  • OKEx’s BSV Long/Short Ratio remains at a relatively high level despite the recent drop, and that could support the short-term correction argument.
  • However, in a short/medium-term perspective, 110 levels could be possible, and could ultimately reach the upper end of the larger triangle pattern.
Figure 6: BSVUSDT Daily Chart (Source: OKEx; Tradingview)
Figure 7: OKEx BSV Long/Short Ratio (Source: OKEx)

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