Open Interest at ATH and Gap Fills after Halving Blimp |

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The CME Bitcoin futures market seems to be on the edge of a bearish reversal. However, the massive increase in OI and golden cross could signal a continuation of the bullish momentum. 

The OI of Bitcoin Futures on CME is currently $499 million, an All-Time High. The day of the halving saw significantly high trading volumes, Nevertheless, unlike the previous highs in open interest, it does not seem to be causing a reduction in Open Interest. As Bitcoin seems to be at the cusp of a parabolic trend, the Open Interest (OI) on CME futures has already seen a 2.5 fold increase in a fortnight.

cme bitcoin fuures open interest
CME Bitcoin Futures Open Interest (Source)

Surprisingly, the high in the OI and volume seems to perfectly coinciding with the local tops on Bitcoin. On 26th June 2019 and February 14th 2020, it marked highs with a OI of $392 million and $329 million, respectively.

bitcoin future daily chart
Bitcoin Futures Daily Chart on CME (TradingView)

From the technical view, the price is currently forming at a golden cross between the 50 and 200-Day EMA (Exponential Moving Average). It also bounced from support from the 200-Day Moving Average, now at $9395.

Gap Analysis

Bitcoin [BTC] price filled the massive $1,155 gap, recorded this weekend as the price dropped after topping at $10,220 prior to halving. A reversal at the edge of the gap could signal another bearish correction below $9000.

bitcoin futures 4-hour
BTC Futures 4-Hour Chart on CME (TradingView)

The monthly Bitcoin Futures price is presently in backwardation, with the July contracts are trading below June futures. This signals a lack of FOMO in the markets despite a 140% rise from lows in March. Nevertheless, it also indicates that traders are lacking confidence in the bull run and betting on a lower price in the short to medium term.

cne bitcoin futures price quotes
Bitcoin CME Futures Price Quote

Do you think the top is in or the stage is set towards 2019 highs around $14000? Please share your views with us. 

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