After crossing on April 12, the controversial indicator uncrossed on April 23rd after just 11 days. This resetting of the indicator took months in previous cycles.
Contrary to popular belief, even by the indicator’s own logic, it doesn’t signal that the bull-run is over, just that the particular ATH will be a good time to sell, and will be followed by a significant dropoff. It most notably does not say when a good time to buy is, just when to sell. The year 2014 had two crosses for its two local tops within a single bull-run, so selling at the first top and not buying back in again would’ve left you in worse spot than if you just HODL’d. These two local tops in 2014 along with the third in 2017 were used to create this indicator. The indicator did not “predict” them, because it was invented in 2019.
The current ATH was the first time the indicator successfully predicted an ATH, so it’s 1 for 1, which might just be dumb luck, but it’s better than 0-for-1.
The indicator uncrossing means it can be tested again. Which raises some questions for people that care about it, or just want to see it invalidated so that the people who hold it as gospel can stop holding it up as the be all end all.
* Will it successfully predict another top and drop?
* Will it completely derp out and cross again, but below 65k?
* Will it cross but miss the top by a wide margin?
* Will it never cross again and be rendered completely useless as Bitcoin‘s sets new ATH’s but at a growth rate slow enough to keep the 111d MA from crossing the 2x 350d MA?
* Will it not cross again ’til 2025, because the current bull-run is over?
* Will it never cross again, because your aunt was right and Bitcoin is all one big Ponzi scheme? /s
Anyway, I just figured I’d point out that the PCTI is already back in play, ready to bestow upon us its great wisdom.
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