So first Guy from the Coin Bureau is excellent if you haven’t watched his videos you need to. He is concise, details information to the way you can understand, and it is fact driven without emotion. The information in this post is directly from him and I give him all credit. I did want to synthesize it briefly and give an opinion of mine on each major event he spoke of. All the events he discussed are set or are believed to occur in the next 30-40 days. His link can be found [here if you would like to watch](https://youtu.be/3cvUpAy_aXQ). For each point I will insert the time stamp if you’d like more in depth explanation from Guy himself.
Black Swann Events: Guy discusses these first. Break you down first then build you back up again later. I always ask for the bad news first.
**BS 1: The US Infrastructure Bill**: The bill has passed the house and is set to be approved after recess is concluded for politicians (must be nice to have a vacation) on September the 20th. The bill has been slated to pass no later than October the 1st. The infrastructure bill is $1.2 TRILLION dollars of American tax payer money to improve roads, power systems, bridges and infrastructure type stuff. However, the U.S. Secretary of Treasury, Janet Yellen, slid in crypto regulations. “It requires loosely defines brokers to collect KYC on their customers” He goes on to discuss that it the treasury department noted that Miners, validators, and wallet developers will not be required to abide by this poorly worded regulation we won’t know for sure until it is amended and passed as they Department has noted. (2:15)
**BS 2: SEC Crypto Regulations:** In short the SEC chair Gary Gensler is targeting all coins except for Bitcoin. The chair must have some on in his portfolio….. The reasoning for this is they feel that crypto are more like stocks. “You invest in them expecting profits because of what the devs are doing.” In the eyes of the SEC this sort of asset requires registering with them which many projects have not. So far he has not been able to act as he requires resources and the authority from politicians who are at the beach currently. This bomb could go off as early as September 20 just like the infrastructure bill. It is likely if power is given early October would be when the killing spree began. Guy believes DEFI products will be the prime candidates for targeting due to the anonymity and functionality of these projects. Primarily, because of these projects offering the unregistered security tokens as discussed previously. (5:00)
**BS 3: Stock Market Crash:** “What must go up, must come down” as Guy said. This would hurt crypto. If they crash we surely will tag along for the ride. The crash could come from 2 sources. First COVID19. If it ramps up and shuts the economy of many major countries all over Europe, Asia, and America we can expect a heavy hit as we did last time this happened, just check the charts before our recovery began. (9:11, this is where he has a nice reminder for you who forgot what happened in March of last year). The other event could be the federal reserve reducing its government bond purchases. In short this increases the interest rate that individuals have to pay on debt. This could cause many issues as you could imagine. If interested check out Guy’s explanation. I will note that people do not believe they would do this as it puts the US at risk on defaulting on the massive debt we have taken on. However, Guy is not convinced as the bond buying is contributing to the hyper inflation and if we continue things will go tits up. September 22 is the date to keep your eye on for this, approximately. (8:14).
OKAY. No more FUD. Lets get to the White Swanns.
**WS 1: Companies Accepting Crypto:** Acceptance of Crypto by some of the largest companies in the world. Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Walmart. All are looking to begin accepting crypto as payment options for goods and services. Tesla is assumed to begin accepting BTC AGAIN, yes again, once BTC mining was on more renewable energy. Well after leaving China, BTC mining is over 50% green now. This means we should expect an announcement form Tesla soon. Remember what happened last time BTC was announced to be accepted by Tesla? Once this announcement comes Guy believes other companies will follow in. Apple has been looking for an alternative payment manager since the end of May. Amazon announced it was looking for the same thing 2 days after the B-word conference. Recently, Walmart said it is looking for someone to help with its digital payment strategy. Paypal is set to launch a crypto “super app”. Imagine if in a month they all announced acceptance of even just BTC. We would soar. Not only from the announcement but these companies will need to buy BTC in heaps to have to exchange with customers. When? Guy thinks weeks. 2-3 weeks is possible putting us in mid September.
**WS 2: Companies Buying Crypto:** We have seen companies buying. Coinbase will be buying $500M in crypto and 10% of its profits into more buys. This is bullish. Besides BTC and ETH we don’t know which but alt coins will be getting some love. Fidelity. One of the largest assets manager in the world. They manage over $10.4 TRILLION dollars and assets. 90% of their largest clients want exposure to crypto. And they want to HODL. BULLISH. Guy said if this happened, the moon would be a pit stop on the way to the next galaxy. In June El Salvador made BTC legal tender and and more South American countries are looking to do it. If so those governments will have to hold BTC on its balance sheet. They also airdropped $30 of BTC to all their citizens which is an estimated $150M in BTC. Coinbase and Fidelity are expected to make announcements at their quarterly earnings reports in early to mid September. Coinbase will reveal then which altcoins it will invest in. I sure hope my alts are on the list. (13:51)
**WS 3: Crypto Upgrades / Events:** I will just list these (17:00)
Possible BTC and/or ETH ETF futures backed or coin backed. SEC looks to approve the BTC ETF. Early to mid late September for these
ADA smart contracts upgrade goes live. September 12th
PolkaDOT parachain slot to go live soon.
In conclusion, Guy believes that September to early October could mark the top of this cycle. I was shocked to hear this. He also said the Black Swann events could or could not happen. However, the White Swann events will all but happen for the most part. So much bullish news and a spread of some FUD. I remain Bullish but once we get deep into September and around the FUD dates I may place stop losses. Again, if you want to watch the video I marked each section for you and the link is at the top.
What do you think will happen? What is your strategy? Which coin do you hope Coinbase puts on its balance sheet? What are your EOY price predictions now? If all 3 White Swann events happen BTC to 100k is childs play.
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