Vitalik Buterin ventures three reasons why prediction markets are pro-Trump

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1. Buterin [suggested](https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin/status/1323525638892875780?s=20) that these markets “correctly incorporate the possibility of heightened election meddling, voter suppression, etc. affecting the outcome.” In contrast, statistical models perhaps “just assume the voting process is fair.”

2. Prediction markets are difficult to access for statistical/politics experts, they’re too small for hedge funds to hire those experts, and the people (esp wealthy people) with the most access to PMs are more optimistic about Trump (This is the pro-stats-model explanation)

3. Pollsters and other technocrats and analysts are “incorrigibly dumb and just haven’t learned their lessons around detecting surprise pro-Trump voters as happened in 2016.” This, Buterin wrote, “intuitively just feels unlikely to me.”

Why do I have to think a lot to understand most things he say in a regular basis? Lol. Clearly a genius.



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