PlanB, the creator of the stock-to-flow (S2F) models, says that Bitcoin (BTC) is still acting ‘like clockwork’ with regards to their forecasts. BTC may be making long traders miserable although one bullish analyst believes that there is some ‘relief’ that comes with bitcoin shedding 22% in a week.
Based on his latest social media update, PlanB noted that the price plunge to below $48,000 has now sent Bitcoin below its target laid out by his stock-to-flow price model.
Stock-To-Flow Is Still Right
In that context, BTC is no longer ‘front-running’ stock-to-flow that is traditionally a highly accurate price-predicting tool. After it traded above the needed level, PlanB suggested that he had become worried since the progress in the market was becoming inorganic.
While speaking with “The Bitcoin Standard” author Saifedean Ammous, PlanB wrote:
“I am sort of relieved BTC price is now under s2f model value again. For a moment I thought that people were front running the model and that the supercycle had started. Now we are back to normal .. like clockwork.”
Both of the terms ‘supercycle’ and ‘clockwork’ will be quite familiar to the long-term hodlers, these normally describing BTC’s relationship to stock-to-flow and the qualities of the current bull market, respectively.
Based on previous reports, the two iterations of the model, stock-to-flow, and stock-to-flow (S2F) cross-asset (S2FX), different calls for an average BTC/USD price of $100,000 or $288,000 between today and 2024.
In the past, PlanB has said that he thinks Bitcoin would not stop at $100,000, which it should hit sometime later this year. The podcast host Stephan Livera responded to Ammous:
“Bitcoiners are often too bullish in the bull market, and too bearish in the bear market! I don’t think we supercycle this time either.”
Sentiment Shakeout Still Continues
In the meantime, different factors were being pitched as the impetus for the latest round of price losses, including the CME futures that are now trading below spot prices as bearishness takes over, as well as a negative Coinbase premium.
The latter suggests there is bullishness when it is positive. But, the reverse is also true when Coinbase spot price is lower than that of fellow exchange Binance. A flip to negative coincided with a series of major sell orders on Coinbase, each one causing a short downside spike in its order book spot price.
If there is irrational sentiment still existing in the market, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index also remained in the “greed” territory despite plunging to monthly lows. However, it still suggests that a sentiment reset is yet to kick into the market.
In its initial plunge from all-time highs near $65,000, Bitcoin experienced mass liquidations of long positions.