There has been recent news that the bear market may be coming to an end for Citibank.
💥NEW: #Bitcoin bear market could be coming to an end
— Bitcoin Archive 🗄🚀🌔 (@BTC_Archive) July 24, 2022
In reality, what has actually been stated is slightly different.
These are statements made by Citi Global Wealth’s North American investment manager, Kristen Bitterly, during an interview with Yahoo Finance.
Bitterly’s statements on the cryptocurrency bear market
Bitterly said that two scenarios seem to be on the horizon, both of which are likely: either a recession will be triggered, or there will be a situation of slowing growth. He then added that between these two hypotheses they consider the second one slightly more likely, namely slowing growth rather than a full-blown recession.
He was referring in particular to the US market, and to the fact that it seems that consumers are “strong” enough that a recession can be avoided.
This is also a very similar position to that of the Fed and US government analysts, so it is a widely accepted view, though not unanimous.
In the same article in which they cite the Bitterly interview, Yahoo Finance also reports excerpts from other interviews, from which it appears that there are conflicting views on this issue.
For example, Chris Pollard, the managing director and head of market strategy at Cowen, states that there might be a push toward new lows, and that he believes the upward movement of the past few days is unlikely to be lasting.
According to Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick, we are still for all intents and purposes in a bear market, with the Fed continuing to row against it by raising rates further.
Even in light of the many stances in favor of further declines, the statements by Citi Global Wealth’s North American investment manager appear less positive than people have been led to believe.
Is there room for a recovery in the sector?
Indeed, Bitterly did not speak of the end of the bear market, but of a period of slowing growth as an alternative to a full-blown recession.
So rather than the end of the actual bear market it would be the end of the downturn period, perhaps followed by a period of lateralization. In that case, it would be difficult to imagine that a new bull market could be triggered any time soon.
A similar argument can be made for Bitcoin as the slump phase seems to have ended, but it is not yet known in which direction the price of BTC will go in the new phase that was triggered in July.