“As a community, if we are going to survive, we need to adopt a long term vision. Getting the most out of this thing before it gets taken down is not going to bring us success.” — Ross Ulbricht
As Decred continues to find itself on the forefront of a new economic system, what does the next 20–30 years of societal transition deem it. In Field Manual A , we delved into a handful of passages in societal economics that pose as given probabilites. To this effect, we want to continue into the last remaining probabilities that pose as future shifts in economic and societal change.
It is highly suggested in reading Field Manual A before continuing , to assess the full spectrum of designated probabilities that have been suggested so far before continuing with the following. As such, we have discussed such optics as the displacement of cash, the rise of government driven blockchains, developer wars, database currency adoption and DAO pockets in society, all in their relationship to Decred.
It should be warranted that these do not serve as any type of prediction analysis and should not in any way be taken as any form of “investment advice”. Rather they serve as modern displacement theories in forecasting new variations of a new economics, which many foresee as a soft human science. It should be noted however that we are dealing with economy driven by code and mathematics , that of a hard science.
With this stated, additional societal and economical probabilities include:
-The Rise of Agorism
This is already beginning to occur.
As global economies continue to falter, some even succumbing to a collective “flatlining”, we will watch economic sub-societies continue to form. These sub-societies will develop counter economies that flourish from both a combination of reputation protocols paired with sound adaptable code. It is more than just hard money. It is the evolution of modern agorism , a libertarian social philosophy that advocates creating a society in which all relations between people are voluntary exchanges by means of counter-economics, thus engaging with aspects of peaceful revolutions.
Decred’s agorism birth has already transpired, as individuals on a global scale, not defined by territorial borders or nationalistic allegiances, have already began to embrace and form the SOV economy that Decred represents. This very representation has already been defined by some as a digital nation state. Imagine how much more, as the number of citizenry who adhere to Decred’s decorum, continue to grow in the upcoming years ahead.
This growth of sovereignty economics will encompass the Mises tenet “All human progress always happened in a manner that a small minority began to deviate from the ideas and habits of the majority, until finally their example inspired the others to take over the new way.”
Take the relationship between miners paired with stakers as well as the sound treasury, the triune of Decred’s agoristic community. Simply a minority at this present moment, but with potential to influence and inspire others in the majority to look at the advantages of Second Realm sovereignty.
We are entering a time in history where it is becoming easier to frustrate world global empires than it is to maintain them. This, paired with over-leveraged faults in these empires, give us a glimpse of just how broken they are. These empires are cracking, splintering one by one at their seams. No amount of glue that current statists, world leaders, or financial spearheads may be applying can spare the eventual consequences that would seemingly await.
The future will show that this bleeding out of modern empires will be a slow bleed, but it will be one none the less.
As time progresses, days will become months, months will become years, years will become decades. Through this all, modern empires will refuse to change their old world systems, but merely pervert that which continues to serve them( a la the blockchain concept). The only methodology that fuels these systems, that of coercion, will be one of the last remaining fragments of operation that may remain when its all said and done. We can expect this level of coercion to be driven by the government database protocols that , at probable measure, will be set in place.
It will be coercion on the blockchain, in massive scale.
Reason for this is impending. Self liberation threatens many global business models, the parasitism nature of many in society, and the mental control that many statists and governments find satisfying. As the old world systems continue to bleed out, the likelihood of these systems doubling down is engrossing. Larger authoritarian measures are likely to be put in place as solutions.
The counter movement to this coercion, that of decentralized alteration of lives at scale, will continue to be led by sound governance protocols such as Decred. The systems that embrace stable reputation protocols and remain adaptive via their agorist adopters will literally usher in a new political ideology. Decred already maintains front runner status as one integrating this ideological spirit. The foresight in its original design and code to give additional sovereign decision rights to it’s stakers, long as it maintains itself in adaptability, can seemingly continue to give Decred this front running position.
The growing pains of evolving from a centralized global state to a decentralized sovereignty will be trying and filled with immense turmoil. These pains are part of every evolutionary measure, and ultimately unavoidable. Unfortunately we cannot timestamp how long these pains may last. Some within the Decred development have given a time frame for the protocol as “the 100 year long play”. I , myself, have referenced that Decred is to be held more so for our grandchildren than for ourselves. Given the Turnings cycle, it would make sense that it would take 2 cycles(40 years) before societal groupthink as a whole would be counter intuitive to that of todays parasitic ways, thus making them more embracive of what Decred signifies.
The given inflation rate of Decred prescribes it’s block rewards as reaching a scarce 0.58 into June of 2039, some twenty years away. Come trials, tribulations, and growth pains as may, the fruition of Decred’s value deems itself reasonably to age well. After all growth pains are a sign of simply that, growth.
-The Dark Ages
I cant help but think there will be a dark age for Decred and as well as the decentralization concept as a whole.
Dark Ages, as defined by historical context, is a time period when society, in our case sub-society, is plunged into ‘darkness’ due to its lack of societal advancement in both cultural and scientific terms. During these times of non advancement, a structue of feudalistic nature tends to display some type of ruling form.
Now this could take form via the State’s rule and their vast deep pockets to combat and regulate decentralization in some way or form. It could take place through some type of trajectory AI evolution of the future. It could take place through global involvements via physical warfare to some extent. More than likely it will be a combination of geopolitical hands in multiple manners paired with the rise in other scientific innovations. Again, predicting probability in the face of future chaos theory is impervious in attempting.
That said, the ‘Dark Ages’ as we perceive it has already begun being felt in another medium of what we have usually considered decentralization, the darknet. Conversation with anyone involved with the darknet proves there is a general consensus that although once a ‘safe haven’ to many seeking to escape authoritarian ways, that it too has been infiltrated. The recent takedowns of several darknet markets and public hangouts leave the impression that the Golden Age of the darknet is a thing of the past. The spirit of individual acceptance, liberty, and freedom that it once assured knowingly has been breached. General mood succumbs that it is not what it once was.
In this light, Tatjana Adamov, a retired darknet mod and criminal justice graduate challenges our perception of “dark ages”. Adamov reminds us that the dark ages in our history books, although extremely trying and darkly perilous, gave us the developments in the Easter Roman Empire, Merovingian Empire, the spread of Christianity, spread of antique philosophy through Spain and Ireland, as well as establishment of the first universities. She continues on, reminding us :
“What’s noticeable about these high points during the Dark Age is that they were not centralized. There were many good things happening, unrelated and driven without oversight.”
And this is the underlying truth in the concept of dark ages. Dark age’s trying times merely weeds out the chaff, cuts the fat, and chips away the weaker ailments of civilizations, even in tech terms. The decentralized foundations built and developed during dark ages lead to Renaissances, which then leads to Ages of Discovery.
Decred, as well as other sub-societies, will be forced to grow through the dark ages. That is part of the aforementioned growing pains of this system. As long as it proves formidable to do so, I believe it reaches and finds its true form of representation at that point.
Whether that be as a SOV.
Or as a collateral security system.
Or as a MOE.
It, as well as anyone who has opted into it’s digital sovereignty system, reaches it’s own age of discovery. That is its most effective intention.
Til then we mine.
Should humanity desire to progress further in order to survive, decentralization must occur. The embracing of it by society, long of a travailing road as it may be, will at some point occur and will be justified by the majority. That is the silver lining in what awaits at the end of all of this.
Disclaimer: The preceding is not intended as investment advice but rather blockchain philosophy and monetary theory.
This article is open source, uncopyrighted, free to use for public domain as anyone may see fit. Attribution, although appreciated, is not required.