Ethereum has suddenly jumped by 14%, or precisely $200, from $1,325 to a brief $1,525 with its ratio also gaining from about 0.07 BTC, to a brief 0.075.
Why? This unexpected move after four months of sideway and after ethereum reached the lowest level of volatility ever, naturally has some wonder whether there’s a very distant bull in sight.
Not least because the move was on no particular news. Stocks rose of course, but they’ve been rising and falling for months, with eth not caring.
DXY kind of dived, but while bitcoin can at times be correlated with that, the eth ratio isn’t, a ratio spike that indicates there’s something to do with eth.
Naturally there’s been suggestions the removal of 12,000 eth ($17 million) from total circulation had something to do with this as the burning intensifies, but that wasn’t some sudden event.
It can of course be reflected on the price suddenly, and maybe that had something to do with it, but some suggest it’s perhaps China with a capital flight ongoing there as the president for life Xi Jinping tells them to study the Sinonization of Marxism. Seriously.
The jump though was at 12pm UTC. That’s usually American morning time. The funds may have gone to US already and entered action, but this move might be a lot wider, a lot more general.
After four months of not moving while bonds got rekt, stocks dived, many national fiat currencies hit lows and lows, the suggestion by some commentators that bitcoin is uncorrelated has been disproven, has itself kind of been disproven.
The categorization of the asset into the high risk basket was also becoming a bit untenable because for months bitcoin has been the safest asset after the dollar, while actual high risk assets like Lilium have dived another 50% in that period.
So the new narrative was right only temporarily, as is often the case with bitcoin as at times it correlates with all sorts of assets until it doesn’t, making it perhaps more a coincidence than a correlation.
And yet changes in narratives take time as bitcoin might have been ignored until now in a dismissal, but after showing so much strength then maybe it can’t be ignored anymore.
That eth rose more than bitcoin if there has been such change in sentiment, isn’t too surprising because the kids get a lot more excited, and have more energy to jump up and down.
But no one can say for sure there has been such a change, except this is all playing exactly like 2018, furnished with that four months sideway, but seems to be on an accelerated mode, presumably because of front-running.
And that four months sideway might be a sufficiently big enough event to at least start softening sentiment towards at least considering whether there might be a bull somewhere in some distance.
In April 2019, that led to a 4x rise in the price before a dive, though now that looks unlikely anytime soon but in bitcoin things can move fast.
Back then it settled at 2x, so maybe that’s what the market will aim for and stabilize if it goes in that direction, with macro also changing in as far as the energy situation seems to have stabilized in Europe, rate hikes are coming to an end, and so far the economy seems to be handling them with 2.9% estimated growth in Q3.
That makes this autumn quite a lot different from last when investors were facing a storm in all directions, and we’re kind of on the other side of the halvening in as far as the last one looks so far away and the next one is now closer.
All of that combined so suggests that a change of sentiment may be due, and if not now then in the next weeks or few months while of course it might fall further but a floor may have been found as this level held for months on high volumes.
Another way of saying it, in the absence of certain information, it probably doesn’t make sense anymore currently to sell in the hope it goes lower, but it can potentially make sense to buy in the hope it goes higher.
The speculative direction therefore may have changed, but it’s too soon to say, and when it won’t be too soon – presuming obviously it moves in that direction – then it might be too late because this thing can move fast.
But it moves slowly first and of course we can all hear the ‘bull trap’ shouts, except we may be entering the territory where it’s actually bears that get trapped in longer timeframes.