How rock bottom morale, back-stabbing and shocking tactics are scuppering Vladimir Putin’s evil war with Ukraine

NOTHING is going right for Vladimir Putin.

First his army foundered in its failed assault of Kyiv. Then his navy was disgraced with the sinking of the flagship Moskva.

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Now his hypersonic Kinzhal missiles — the ones he boasted were unstoppable — have been shot down by US-made Patriot missiles.

The only tactics that seem to work are the Soviet-style scorched-earth assaults. That is how he captured the ruins of Mariupol after a months-long siege.

It is how his army advanced through the ruins of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk last year. And it is how he is blasting his way, block by blood-soaked block, through what is left of Bakhmut.

Yet it comes at extraordinary cost.

The US has claimed Russia has lost 100,000 troops since December, with at least 20,000 killed in action.

Putin has already allowed the Wagner Group mercenary outfit to recruit killers and rapists from prison. And he sparked muted but nationwide protests when he ordered a wave of mobilisation last year to backfill battlefield losses.

If it was simply a battle of bodies then Russia would be bound to win.
Its population of 145million is more than three times that of Ukraine’s.

But of course, it is not that simple.

The battle for Bakhmut is proof that bodies are not enough.

For almost a year the Wagner Group has thrown its men in to the slaughter, with World War One-style charges at dug-in machine guns and trenches.

Three months ago the mood among Ukraine’s defenders was bleak.

Under non-stop heavy bombardments from tanks and heavy artillery, they were forced to cede street after street. The devastated town was the epicentre of the war.

After two spectacular autumn offensives, when Ukraine forced Russian retreats from Kharkiv and Kherson, the frontlines had stagnated. Thousands of troops died on both sides.

But little ground changed hands. Bakhmut was almost encircled. Its fall felt all but inevitable.

Until last week.

Troops from Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade launched a textbook armoured infantry assault that sent Russia’s regular forces retreating in “bad order”.

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They attacked the southern flank of a Russian pincer movement that had threatened to surround Bakhmut. Russian troops retreated at least a kilometre, in a small but significant victory and a shot in the arm for Ukraine’s morale.

It triggered a furious rant from Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, who claimed his “flanks were collapsing”.

Prigozhin called Putin an a***hole, slammed his defence chiefs as scum and threatened to withdraw his gun-for-hire fighters unless he got more ammunition.

In the latest sign of spectacular fissures among Putin’s top lieutenants, Prigozhin was forced to deny allegations that he was in talks with Ukraine’s intelligence.

Leaked secret US documents, reported by The Washington Post, suggest he offered to give away Russian positions if Ukraine ceded land around Bakhmut.

This came days after Putin presided over Moscow’s diminished show of military might. His battered armed forces could only muster a single, museum-piece tank.

A World War Two-era T-34 led a massively scaled-back parade in Red Square, with no modern tanks, no multiple rocket launchers and no aircraft.

Russia has lost an eye-watering 2,000 tanks in Ukraine. It has around 1,000 left.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has taken delivery of hundreds of tanks from its allies, ranging from Soviet-era T-72s to British Challenger 2s and German and Polish Leopard 2s.

France has promised more tank-killer AMX-10RC vehicles. Britain’s Storm Shadow stealth cruise missiles — designed to hit bunkers and missile silos — have been used within days of their arrival last week.

And the newly arrived Patriot air defence systems are proving their worth around Kyiv.

The Pentagon confirmed last week that at least one Kinzhal missile was downed. Ukraine said six more were hit on Tuesday. Moscow insisted the barrage destroyed a Patriot battery.

Either way, Ukraine estimates Russia has fewer than 50 Kinzhal left. The presence of Patriot batteries is forcing Russia to use its best missiles.

If Ukraine’s claims are proven correct, it will be another seismic blow to the myth of Russian invincibility.

That is a myth Ukraine hopes to put to rest for good with its long-awaited spring offensive.

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Last week’s sudden gains outside Bakhmut were unlikely to signal its start.

Ukraine’s President Zelensky said he had paused the assault while he waits for more armoured vehicles. He knows how much is riding on it.

A successful assault will galvanise allies whose arms supplies have been key to keeping Ukraine in the fight. Anything less risks eroding support and could help Moscow fracture the West’s cohesion.

At the moment that split seems unlikely.

While Putin could only press-gang a handful of ex-Soviet state leaders to attend his parade in Moscow this month, Zelensky has been welcomed in half a dozen capitals and he met the Pope in the Vatican.

Italy, France and Britain all used the trips to promise more weapons.

Lightning assault

Meanwhile, back on the battlefield, both sides are trying to cripple each other’s logistics with strikes on ammo dumps, fuel reserves and other supplies.

For Russia that meant a cruise missile strike on a Red Cross aid depot outside Odesa and what appeared to be a successful strike on a missile silo in Khmelnytskyi.

Ukraine has hit multiple fuel depots, including in Crimea. The arrival of Storm Shadow missiles, with a range of 155 miles, will only make that easier.

What Ukraine lacks in mass against Russia, it makes up with morale, better weapons and much better tactics.

Last year’s autumn assaults by Ukraine came soon after HIMARS and GMLRS rocket launchers, with a range of 50 miles, let them hit deep behind the front line.

In Kharkiv it led to a lightning assault as Russia’s front lines collapsed.

In Kherson, Russia was forced to retreat when commanders realised it was impossible to keep their troops supplied.

It is exactly that choke on logistics which Ukraine will seek to achieve once again. Its troops will probe Russian front lines for the weak points and charge through when they find the right crack.

It is the ancient wisdom of Sun Tzu to try to win without fighting.